Development of USGS NSHMs: Do small changes in hazard imply small changes in risk?
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
One of the flagship products from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Since 1976, the NSHM has been periodically updated to reflect newly published earthquake science and provide probabilistic estimates of seismic hazard for the United States. During each update cycle, alternative models are deliberated, analyzed, and documented through logic trees and their corresponding logic tree branch weights. For example, the decision to modify a logic tree branch weight may be influenced by sensitivity analyses of the logic tree branches in their effects on the mean hazard. However, do small changes in traditional measures of hazard imply small changes in risk? In this study, we make use of two update cycles of the USGS NSHMs and a National Bridge Inventory (NBI) from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) to explore the preceding question. Specifically, we first identify geographic locations in the conterminous United States in which the change in hazard from one cycle to another is relatively small. Next, we model the seismic risk to highway bridges for these locations and for each update cycle, while simultaneously distinguishing low hazard environments from high hazard environments. These data enable quantitative analysis of how much changes in risk can be expected given small changes in hazard, investigating the importance of risk models in decision-making during development of the USGS NSHMs.
Suggested Citation
Kwong, N.S., and Jaiswal, K.S., 2024, Development of USGS NSHMs: Do small changes in hazard imply small changes in risk?, 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Milan, Italy, June 30-July 5, 2024, 11 p.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Development of USGS NSHMs: Do small changes in hazard imply small changes in risk? |
| Year Published | 2024 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | International Association for Earthquake Engineering |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism |
| Description | 11 p. |
| Conference Title | 18th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering |
| Conference Location | Milan, Italy |
| Conference Date | June 30-July 5, 2024 |