State-parameter estimation of ecosystem models using a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter

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Abstract

Much of the effort in data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be reduced if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) to estimate simultaneously the system states and model parameters of an eddy flux partition model. The approach is used to assimilate observed fluxes of carbon and major driving forces at an AmeriFlux forest station: Howland, Maine, USA. The aim of applying a kernel-smoothing algorithm to an ensemble Kalman filter is to overcome the dramatic, sudden change of parameter values in time and the loss of continuity between two consecutive points in time. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and so on, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the simultaneous parameter estimation procedure significantly improves model predictions. Results also show that the SEnKF can dramatically reduce variance in state variables stemming from the uncertainty of parameters and driving variables. The SEnKF is a robust and effective algorithm in evaluating and developing ecosystem models and in improving understanding and quantification of carbon cycle parameters and processes.

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title State-parameter estimation of ecosystem models using a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter
Year Published 2006
Language English
Publisher International Environmental Modelling & Software
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 7 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title Proceedings of the iEMSs 2006 conference
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