Predictive understanding of stream salinization in a developed watershed using machine learning

Environmental Science and Technology
By: , and 

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Abstract

Stream salinization is a global issue, yet few models can provide reliable salinity estimates for unmonitored locations at the time scales required for ecological exposure assessments. Machine learning approaches are presented that use spatially limited high-frequency monitoring and spatially distributed discrete samples to estimate the daily stream-specific conductance across a watershed. We compare the predictive performance of space- and time-unaware Random Forest models and space- and time-aware Recurrent Graph Convolution Neural Network models (KGE: 0.67 and 0.64, respectively) and use explainable artificial intelligence methods to interpret model predictions and understand salinization drivers. These models are applied to the Delaware River Basin, a developed watershed with diverse land uses that experiences anthropogenic salinization from winter deicer applications. These models capture seasonality for the winter first flush of deicers, and the streams with elevated predictions correspond well with indicators of deicer application. This result suggests that these models can be used to identify potential salinity-impaired streams for winter best management practices. Daily salinity predictions are driven primarily by land cover (urbanization) trends that may represent anthropogenic salinization processes and weather at time scales up to three months. Such modeling approaches are likely transferable to other watersheds and can be applied to further understand salinization risks and drivers.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Predictive understanding of stream salinization in a developed watershed using machine learning
Series title Environmental Science and Technology
DOI 10.1021/acs.est.4c05004
Edition 18822
Volume 58
Issue 42
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher American Chemical Society
Contributing office(s) New Jersey Water Science Center, Oklahoma Water Science Center, WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division
Description 12 p.
First page 18833
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