Reducing uncertainty with iterative model updating parses effects of competition and environment on salamander occupancy

Oecologia
By: , and 

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Abstract

Making timely management decisions is often hindered by uncertainty. Monitoring reduces two key types of uncertainty. First, it serves to reduce structural uncertainty of how the system works and provides support for expectations of how a system works. Second, it serves to reduce parametric uncertainty of the drivers of system dynamics. By combining monitoring data and quantitative models, we can reduce structural and parametric uncertainty. To demonstrate this, we focus on the Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), a United States Federally Endangered Species. Early work suggested that P. shenandoah extinction risk results from competition with a conspecific (Plethodon cinereus). However, more recent work has found equivocal support for this claim, instead suggesting that abiotic factors, such as moisture and temperature, drive P. shenandoah persistence. Using long-term monitoring data, we find that while competition may play a part in P. shenandoah extinction risk, measures of surface moisture are better predictors of occupancy dynamics. Further, we find decreased detection rates of P. shenandoah when P. cinereus is present, suggesting a conflation of detection probability with actual competition, which cautions against making inference from unadjusted observations of occurrence. Using multiple lines of inquiry allows for more robust understanding of system drivers in the face of high uncertainty, increasing opportunities to manage extinction risk.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Reducing uncertainty with iterative model updating parses effects of competition and environment on salamander occupancy
Series title Oecologia
DOI 10.1007/s00442-024-05631-x
Volume 206
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher Springer Nature
Contributing office(s) Eastern Ecological Science Center
Description 12 p.
First page 305
Last page 316
Country United States
State Virginia
Other Geospatial Blue Ridge Mountains, Shenandoah National Park
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