Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

Nature Climate Change
By: , and 

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Abstract

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action
Series title Nature Climate Change
DOI 10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0
Edition Online First
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher Nature
Contributing office(s) WMA - Integrated Information Dissemination Division
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