Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

PNAS
By: , and 

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Abstract

The loss of phosphorous (P) from the land to aquatic systems has polluted waters and threatened food production worldwide. Systematic trend analysis of P, a nonrenewable resource, has been challenging, primarily due to sparse and inconsistent historical data. Here, we leveraged intensive hydrometeorological data and the recent renaissance of deep learning approaches to fill data gaps and reconstruct temporal trends. We trained a multitask long short-term memory model for total P (TP) using data from 430 rivers across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Trend analysis of reconstructed daily records (1980–2019) shows widespread decline in concentrations, with declining, increasing, and insignificantly changing trends in 60%, 28%, and 12% of the rivers, respectively. Concentrations in urban rivers have declined the most despite rising urban population in the past decades; concentrations in agricultural rivers however have mostly increased, suggesting not-as-effective controls of nonpoint sources in agriculture lands compared to point sources in cities. TP loss, calculated as fluxes by multiplying concentration and discharge, however exhibited an overall increasing rate of 6.5% per decade at the CONUS scale over the past 40 y, largely due to increasing river discharge. Results highlight the challenge of reducing TP loss that is complicated by changing river discharge in a warming climate.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers
Series title PNAS
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2402028121
Volume 121
Issue 48
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher National Academy of Sciences
Contributing office(s) VA/WV Water Science Center
Description e2402028121, 9 p.
Country United States
Other Geospatial conterminous United States
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