The productivity of Cascadia aftershock sequences

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Abstract

This study addresses questions about the productivity of Cascadia mainshock–aftershock sequences using earthquake catalogs produced by the Geological Survey of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Questions concern the likelihood that future moderate to large intermediate depth intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia would have as few detectable aftershocks as those documented since 1949. More broadly, for Cascadia, we consider if aftershock productivities vary spatially, if they are outliers among global subduction zones, and if they are consistent with a physical model in which aftershocks are clock‐advanced versions of tectonically driven background seismicity. A practical motivation for this study is to assess the likely accuracy of aftershock forecasts based on productivities derived from global data that are now being issued routinely by the U.S. Geological Survey. For this reason, we estimated productivity following the identical procedures used in those forecasts and described in Page et al. (2016). Results indicate that in Cascadia we can say that the next intermediate depth intraslab earthquake will likely have just a few detectable aftershocks and that aftershock productivity appears to be an outlier among global subduction zones, with rates that on average are lower by more than half, except for mainshocks in the upper plate. Our results are consistent with a clock‐advance model; productivities may be related to the proximity of mainshocks to a population of seismogenic fault patches and correlate with background seismicity rates. The latter and a clear correlation between productivities with mainshock depth indicate that both factors may have predictive value for aftershock forecasting.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title The productivity of Cascadia aftershock sequences
Series title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI 10.1785/0120200344
Volume 111
Issue 3
Publication Date April 13, 2021
Year Published 2021
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 14 p.
First page 1494
Last page 1507
Country Canada, United States
State British Columbia, California, Oregon, Washington
Other Geospatial Cascadia
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