Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, part 1: Methodology and overall results

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Abstract

We have produced a large set of broadband (0–10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9.0 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust by combining synthetic seismograms derived from 3D finite‐difference simulations (⁠≤1  Hz⁠) with finite‐source, stochastic synthetics (⁠≥1  Hz⁠). We used a compound rupture model consisting of high stress drop Mw 8 subevents superimposed on large, shallower slip with long‐slip duration, informed by observations of the Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, and Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquakes. Thirty 3D simulations were run, considering a variety of rupture parameters, to determine the range of expected ground motions. For sites not in sedimentary basins, the spectral accelerations of the synthetics are similar to the BC Hydro ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for periods of 0.1–6 s, but exceed them at periods greater than 6 s. Response spectra from the synthetics at sites in the Seattle and Tacoma sedimentary basins show large amplifications of factors of 2–5 at periods of 1–10 s. This basin amplification is substantially larger than that found for crustal earthquakes in the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 (NGA‐West2) GMPEs. Basin amplification is caused by basin‐edge generated surface waves and by amplification and focusing of S waves and surface waves by the 3D basin structure. The synthetic seismograms show effective average durations of strong motions of about 70 s for coastal sites, increasing to about 120 s at 200 km distance. We find that the interevent and intraevent standard deviations of the spectral amplitudes of the synthetics are larger for sites closer to the rupture, because they are more sensitive to the location of subevents and rupture directivity.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Broadband synthetic seismograms for magnitude 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust based on 3D simulations and stochastic synthetics, part 1: Methodology and overall results
Series title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI 10.1785/0120180034
Volume 108
Issue 5A
Publication Date August 07, 2018
Year Published 2018
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 23 p.
First page 2347
Last page 2369
Country United States
State California, Oregon, Washington
Other Geospatial Cascadia megathrust
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