Bayesian calibration of the 40K decay scheme with implications for 40K-based geochronology

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta
By: , and 

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Abstract

The K/Ar and 40Ar/39Ar geochronometers are based on the naturally occurring radionuclide 40K. Their precision and accuracy are limited by uncertainties on the 40K decay constants and, in the case of the 40Ar/39Ar geochronometer, the isotopic composition of neutron fluence monitors. To address these limitations, we introduce a Bayesian calibration of the 40K decay scheme. We formulate robust priors for all model parameters including partial 40K decay constants, 238U and 235U decay constants, and age offset parameters to account for phenomena that can perturb apparent U-Pb and 40Ar/39Ar ages. We then harness a set of complementary 40Ar/39Ar, 238U/206Pb, and 235U/207Pb data from well- characterized geological samples with ages from 1.919 ka to 2000 Ma to derive Bayesian estimates of the 40K decay constants. Posterior values for the partial 40K decay constants are λβ-= (4.9252 ± 0.0054) × 10−10 yr−1λβ+ = (5.6658 ± 0.1543) × 10−15 yr−1λEC0 = (5.7404 ± 0.0053) × 10−11 yr−1, and λEC0= (4.9060 ± 0.2942)× 10−13 yr−1 (uncertainties reported at the 68 % (1 σ) credible interval). These combine to a total 40K decay constant λtot= (5.5042 ± 0.0054)× 10−10 yr−1. Model estimates of the 238U and 235U decay constants are statistically indistinguishable from those reported by Jaffey et al. (1971). Posterior values of the 40K decay constants and the 40Ar*/40K isotopic composition of Fish Canyon sanidine (FCs) define a K/Ar FCs age of 28.183 ± 0.017 Ma (1 σ). Significantly, Bayesian calibrated 40Ar/39Ar ages align with astronomically tuned ages throughout the Cenozoic and with 238U/206Pb and 235U/207Pb ages in the Mesozoic, Paleozoic, and Proterozoic, as well as having comparable precision to the 238U/206Pb method. Thus, Bayesian calibration of the 40 K decay scheme and the K/Ar age of FCs reconciles the 40Ar/39Ar, U-Pb, and astronomical chronometers.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Bayesian calibration of the 40K decay scheme with implications for 40K-based geochronology
Series title Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta
DOI 10.1016/j.gca.2025.03.024
Edition Online First
Publication Date March 24, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Geology, Geophysics, and Geochemistry Science Center
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