Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover of 1213 Minnesota lakes
Limnology and Oceanography Letters
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Abstract
Lake ice cover is declining globally with important implications for lake ecosystems. Ice loss studies often rely on small numbers of lakes with long-term data. We analyzed variation and trends in ice cover phenology from 1,213 lakes over 74 years (1949-2022) in Minnesota (USA), during which ice cover duration declined at a rate of 2 days per decade (14 days total) and became more variable. Despite variation in phenology, just 10-20% of lakes differed from statewide phenological trends. Accounting for synchronous annual variation and estimating trends over long time periods (e.g., >40 years) were critical for obtaining robust estimates of ice loss. The constant rates estimated here were consistent with recent global estimates (1.7-1.9 days per decade) and suggest that, even if present, accelerating rates of ice loss would be difficult to detect in the midst of shorter-term periods of warming and increasing variability.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover of 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| Series title | Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
| DOI | 10.1002/lol2.70015 |
| Edition | Online First |
| Publication Date | April 09, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography |
| Contributing office(s) | Great Lakes Science Center |
| Country | United States |
| State | Minnesota |