Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover of 1213 Minnesota lakes
Limnology and Oceanography Letters
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Abstract
Lake ice cover is declining globally with important implications for lake ecosystems. Ice loss studies often rely on small numbers of lakes with long-term data. We analyzed variation and trends in ice cover phenology from 1,213 lakes over 74 years (1949-2022) in Minnesota (USA), during which ice cover duration declined at a rate of 2 days per decade (14 days total) and became more variable. Despite variation in phenology, just 10-20% of lakes differed from statewide phenological trends. Accounting for synchronous annual variation and estimating trends over long time periods (e.g., >40 years) were critical for obtaining robust estimates of ice loss. The constant rates estimated here were consistent with recent global estimates (1.7-1.9 days per decade) and suggest that, even if present, accelerating rates of ice loss would be difficult to detect in the midst of shorter-term periods of warming and increasing variability.
Suggested Citation
Walsh, J., Rounds, C., Vitense, K., Masui, H., Blumenfeld, K., Boulay, P., Thomas, S., Honsey, A.E., Blinick, N.S., Rude, C.L., Bacon, J., LaRoque, A., Leao, T., Hansen, G., 2025, Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover of 1213 Minnesota lakes: Limnology and Oceanography Letters, v. 10, no. 4, p. 506-515, https://doi.org/10.1002/lol2.70015.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Variable phenology but consistent loss of ice cover of 1213 Minnesota lakes |
| Series title | Limnology and Oceanography Letters |
| DOI | 10.1002/lol2.70015 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Publication Date | April 09, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography |
| Contributing office(s) | Great Lakes Science Center |
| Description | 10 p. |
| First page | 506 |
| Last page | 515 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Minnesota |