Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C

Neil Saintilan; Benjamin Horton; Torbjörn Törnqvist; Erica Ashe; Nicole Khan; Mark Schuerch; Chris Perry; Robert E. Kopp; Gregory Garner; Nicholas Murray; Kerrylee Rogers; Simon Albert; Jeffrey Kelleway; Timothy Shaw; Colin D. Woodroffe; Catherine E. Lovelock; Madeline Goddard; Lindsay B. Hutley; Katya Kovalenko; Laura Feher; Glenn R. Guntenspergen

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C

Nature

By: Neil Saintilan, Benjamin Horton, Torbjörn Törnqvist, Erica Ashe, Nicole Khan, Mark Schuerch, Chris Perry, Robert E. Kopp, Gregory Garner, Nicholas Murray, Kerrylee Rogers, Simon Albert, Jeffrey Kelleway, Timothy Shaw, Colin D. Woodroffe, Catherine E. Lovelock, Madeline Goddard, Lindsay B. Hutley, Katya Kovalenko, Laura Feher, and Glenn R. Guntenspergen

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z

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Abstract

Several coastal ecosystems—most notably mangroves and tidal marshes—exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment¹. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs². The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested³. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr⁻¹ and highly likely at 7 mm yr⁻¹ of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr⁻¹, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr⁻¹ of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world’s mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr⁻¹. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C
Series title	Nature
DOI	10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z
Volume	621
Publication Date	August 30, 2023
Year Published	2023
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	Eastern Ecological Science Center
Description	8 p.
First page	112
Last page	119