Modeled streamflow response to scenarios of Tundra Lake water withdrawal and seasonal climate extremes, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

Water Resources Research
By: , and 

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Abstract

On the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) in Northern Alaska (USA), permafrost and abundant surface-water storage define watershed hydrological processes, which are increasingly subject to changes both in climate and land-use. In the last decades, the ACP landscape experienced extreme climate events and increased lake water withdrawal (LWW) for construction of infrastructure related to resource extraction (primarily ice roads and industrial operations). However, their potential (combined) effects on streamflow are relatively underexplored. Here, we applied the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological and thermal Water Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) (10 m spatial resolution) to the 30 km² Crea Creek watershed located on the ACP. The impacts of documented seasonal climate extremes and LWW were evaluated on seasonal runoff (May-August), including minimum 7-day mean flow (MQ7), the recovery time of MQ7 to pre-perturbation conditions and the duration of streamflow conditions that prevents fish passage. Low-rainfall scenarios (21% of normal, 1 to 3 summers in a row) caused a larger reduction in MQ7 (56 - 69%) than LWW alone (44 - 58%). Decadal-long consecutive LWW resulted in a new equilibrium in low-flow and seasonal runoff after the third year of LWW that included a disconnected stream network, a reduced contributing area (54% of the watershed area) and limited fish passage throughout summer. Our results highlight that LWW is not offset by same-year snowmelt for lake water levels and streamflow as currently assumed in land management regulations. Effective land management would therefore benefit from considering the combined impact of climate change and industrial lake water withdrawals.  

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Modeled streamflow response to scenarios of Tundra Lake water withdrawal and seasonal climate extremes, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska
Series title Water Resources Research
DOI 10.1029/2022wr032119
Volume 58
Issue 8
Publication Date August 04, 2022
Year Published 2022
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Seattle
Description e2022WR032119, 19 p.
Country United States
State Alaska
Other Geospatial Arctic Coastal Plain
Additional publication details