Waterline responses to climate forcing along the North American West Coast

Communications Earth & Environment
By: , and 

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Abstract

Understanding waterline variability at seasonal to interannual timescales is crucial for predicting coastal responses to climate forcing. However, relationships between large-scale climate variability and coastal morphodynamics remain underexplored beyond intensively monitored sites. This study leverages a newly developed 25-year (1997–2022) satellite-derived waterline dataset along the North American West Coast. Our results reveal distinct latitudinal patterns in seasonal waterline change, with excursions exceeding 25 m in the Pacific Northwest, decreasing to less than 10 m in Southern California and farther south. Waterline fluctuations strongly follow wave power in the Pacific Northwest (R = −0.78), northern California (R = −0.75), and Baja California (R = −0.62), while Baja California Sur aligns more with sea-level variations (R = −0.42). Interannually, waterline change exhibits latitudinal dependence: south of southern California, variability is low, with major erosion confined to strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, while northern regions show mixed responses. ENSO-driven storm track shifts modulate winter wave climate, resulting in enhanced (attenuated) erosion from southern California to Baja California Sur during El Niño (La Niña). However, further north, ENSO impacts are less consistent, reflecting a complex interplay of storm track displacement and intensification. These findings highlight the spatial complexity of ENSO-driven morphodynamics and provide a framework for assessing climate-induced coastal vulnerability.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Waterline responses to climate forcing along the North American West Coast
Series title Communications Earth & Environment
DOI 10.1038/s43247-025-02414-x
Volume 6
Issue 1
Publication Date June 07, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher Nature
Contributing office(s) Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 444, 15 p.
Country Mexico, United States
Other Geospatial North American West Coast
Additional publication details