Observations reveal changing coastal storm extremes around the United States
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Abstract
Understanding extreme storm surge events that threaten low-lying coastal communities is key to effective flood mitigation/adaptation measures. However, observational estimates are sparse and highly uncertain along most coastal regions with a lack of observational evidence about long-term underlying trends and their contribution to overall extreme sea-level changes. Here, using a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical framework, we analyse US tide gauge record for 1950–2020 and find that observational estimates have underestimated likelihoods of storm surge extremes at 85% of tide gauge sites nationwide. Additionally, and contrary to prevailing beliefs, storm surge extremes show spatially coherent trends along many widespread coastal areas, providing evidence of changing coastal storm intensity in the historical monitoring period. Several hotspots exist with regionally significant storm surge trends that are comparable to trends in mean sea-level rise and its key components. Our findings challenge traditional coastal design/planning practices that rely on estimates from discrete observations and assume stationarity in surge extremes.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Observations reveal changing coastal storm extremes around the United States |
| Series title | Nature Climate Change |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z |
| Volume | 15 |
| Publication Date | April 17, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Nature |
| Contributing office(s) | Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 8 p. |
| First page | 538 |
| Last page | 545 |
| Country | United States |