‘The fish that stop’: Drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
By: , and 

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Abstract

n the Gulf of Alaska, a series of marine heat waves depleted Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) biomass to the lowest abundance ever recorded and led to the fishery’s closure in 2020. Although the fishery has been productive for decades, this collapse may have historical precedents. Traditional knowledge holders refer to cod as ‘the fish that stop’, and there is a suggested period of decline in the 1930s. Here we conduct a catch reconstruction of the early commercial fishery (1864–1950), confirming a rapid catch decline in the 1920s and 1930s. Next, we evaluate evidence for possible drivers. We document changes to demand and technology that contributed to declining catch. However, we also find both qualitative and quantitative evidence of depletion, suggesting catch declines were not driven entirely by social factors. Overfishing may have contributed to localized catch declines as evidenced by declining catch rates in heavily fished localities. We also find evidence for climate as a driver of regional decline, with the period of catch decline characterized by up to 2°C higher temperatures as compared to the earlier period of high fisheries production. Our analysis underscores the importance of understanding long-term drivers of fisheries productivity and the value of linking fisheries and climate histories.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title ‘The fish that stop’: Drivers of historical decline for Pacific cod and implications for modern management in an era of rapidly changing climate
Series title Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
DOI 10.1098/rstb.2024.0278
Volume 380
Issue 1930
Publication Date July 10, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher The Royal Society Publishing
Contributing office(s) Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center
Description 20240278, 11 p.
Country United States
State Alaska
Other Geospatial Gulf of Alaska
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