The management of invasive Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix in the Tennessee River basin focuses on removal, and there is interest in extending removal efforts to the tailwater environments of high-head locks and dams along the Tennessee River, such as Kentucky Dam. We used acoustic telemetry data from Silver Carp to understand important ecological associations underlying their residence in the Kentucky Dam tailwater, measured by daily fish counts and mean residence time.

We used time-series-informed regression models, variance partitioning, and cross-correlation function analysis to associate six predictors, including lock and dam operations (total, spill gate, and turbine discharge and number of lockages), hydrology (tailwater elevation), and water temperature, with two measures of Silver Carp residency (daily counts and mean residence time).

We found that spill-induced hydrology (total discharge + spill discharge + tailwater elevation) was negatively associated with daily counts but not with residence time, whereas temperature was positively associated with counts and negatively associated with residence times. Variance partitioning indicated that nearly all the variance in counts and residence times was jointly explained by temporal effects, lock and dam operations (discharge, tailwater elevation, and lockages), and temperature. The cross-correlations indicated that the counts were lagged by all predictors, sometimes up to 5 d, whereas residence times were lagged by both total and spill discharge and number of lockages.

We found that discharge and water temperature were principally associated with residency of Silver Carp in the Kentucky Dam tailwater. However, these associations were entirely temporally constrained, which can affect how strongly and how quickly Silver Carp respond to changing environmental conditions across different time scales. Managers can leverage these associations to plan removal periods where daily tailwater conditions/dam operations are favorable to invasive carp residence (e.g., >10°C and <2,500 m³/s) and adjust fishing effort to optimize removal rates in response to changing conditions.