Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology

Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences (NHESS)
By: , and 

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Abstract

Rainfall strongly affects landslide triggering; however, understanding how storm characteristics relate to the severity of landslides at the regional scale has thus far remained unclear, despite the societal benefits that would result from defining this relationship. As mapped landslide inventories typically cover a small region relative to a storm system, here we develop a dimensionless index for landslide-inducing rainfall, A*, based on extremes of modeled soil water relative to its local climatology. We calibrate A* using four landslide inventories, comprising over 11 000 individual landslides over four unique storm events, and find that a common threshold can be applied to estimate regional shallow-landslide-triggering potential across diverse climatic regimes in California (USA). We then use the spatial distribution of A*, along with topography, to calculate the landslide potential area (LPA) for nine landslide-inducing storm events over the past 20 years, and we test whether atmospheric metrics describing the strength of landfalling storms, such as integrated water vapor transport, correlate with the magnitude of hazardous landslide-inducing rainfall. We find that although the events with the largest LPA do occur during exceptional atmospheric river (AR) storms, the strength of landfalling atmospheric rivers does not scale neatly with landslide potential area, and even exceptionally strong ARs may yield minimal landslide impacts. Other factors, such as antecedent soil moisture driven by storm frequency and mesoscale precipitation features within storms, are instead more likely to dictate the patterns of landslide-generating rainfall throughout the state.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Characterizing the scale of regional landslide triggering from storm hydrometeorology
Series title Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences (NHESS)
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-1037-2025
Volume 25
Issue 3
Publication Date March 10, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher European Geosciences Union
Contributing office(s) Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center
Description 20 p.
First page 1037
Last page 1056
Country United States
State California
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