Broadband stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions with multiple strong phases with an application to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake
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Abstract
Stochastic ground motion simulation models are often less accurate at lower frequencies than at higher frequencies when fitting recorded data unless supplemented by a deterministic forward directivity velocity pulse model. Moreover, time-modulated stochastic models, which adjust ground motion amplitudes over time, typically use functions that fail to capture multiple strong-motion phases. The February 2023 Turkey (Türkiye) earthquake exhibited diverse recordings, including near-fault and far-field motions with pulse-like and non-pulse-like characteristics, along with single and multiple strong-motion phases. To better represent such a diverse set of recordings, this study enhances a fully non-stationary site-based stochastic model without combining it with a deterministic model. Improvements include a new band-pass filter with upper- and lower-frequency limits, which refines the representation of the low-frequency content. Moreover, a time-modulating function that can represent energy arrival in multiple strong phases is introduced. The reference model’s parameters are identified by fitting to the energy content, zero-level crossings, and cumulative counts of positive-minima and negative-maxima of a target accelerogram. This fitting procedure is modified to address the increased number of parameters. These improvements broaden the reference model’s applicability while preserving its simplicity, a key aspect appealing to engineering practitioners. The improved model’s applicability is demonstrated by simulating a dataset from the February 2023 Türkiye earthquake, and the accuracy is tested using a pulse-like Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Western United States dataset. Validations are performed based on total energy, zero-level crossings, Fourier amplitude spectrum, elastic response spectra, and peak ground motion parameters. Validations are performed schematically in the time and frequency domains and quantitatively using goodness-of-fit scores, various validation-metrics errors, and inter-period correlations. Overall, the improved stochastic model can effectively simulate a set of diverse ground motion recordings, including near-fault pulse-like records, records with multiple strong phases, and far-field motions across a broad frequency range.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Broadband stochastic simulation of earthquake ground motions with multiple strong phases with an application to the 2023 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey (Türkiye), earthquake |
| Series title | Earthquake Spectra |
| DOI | 10.1177/87552930251331981 |
| Volume | 41 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Publication Date | April 25, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Sage Publications |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism |
| Description | 37 p. |
| First page | 2399 |
| Last page | 2435 |
| Country | Turkey |
| City | Kahramanmaraş |