Shifts in suitability of pinyon-juniper communities: A climate adaptation framework for range-wide management of arid woodland resources
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Open Access Version: Publisher Index Page
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Pinyon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a diverse ecosystem type providing a wealth of ecosystem services across western North America. Managing PJ woodlands in the 21st century entails balancing multiple conservation objectives, and resource managers and policy-makers working to sustain PJ woodlands need spatially explicit information about current PJ woodland conditions and how they may be impacted in coming decades in the context of wildfire risk and changing climate. Here, we address knowledge gaps and provide information that improves the long-term value of conservation and restoration actions in PJ woodlands. To this end, we merged projections of future environmental suitability for nine PJ species with wildfire risk and locations of mature and old-growth (MOG) woodlands to assess spatial variation in PJ woodlands with differing threats and management opportunities. We identified potential climate refugia with enduring high community suitability and low burn probability (3 % of study area) that may persist with relatively little management. We found promising locations of PJ-MOG forest type with high future suitability (12 % of areas) that could be prioritized for fire risk reduction to maintain high-value woodlands. Despite a 38 % mean community suitability decline under future climate conditions, some locations (7 % of areas) may act as climate refugia where future climate conditions can support current PJ woodland composition and structure. We conclude by demonstrating how this information can be integrated into a conceptual framework to help prioritize conservation and climate adaptation in PJ woodlands.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Shifts in suitability of pinyon-juniper communities: A climate adaptation framework for range-wide management of arid woodland resources |
| Series title | Forest Ecology & Management |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.foreco.2025.123075 |
| Volume | 596 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Contributing office(s) | Southwest Biological Science Center |
| Description | 123075, 13 p. |
| Country | Canada, Mexico, United States |
| Other Geospatial | western North America |