Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm
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Abstract
Stream temperature controls a variety of physical and biological processes that affect ecosystems, human health, and economic activities. We used 42 years (1979–2021) of data to predict daily summary statistics of stream temperature across >50,000 stream reaches in the contiguous United States using a recurrent graph convolution network. We comprehensively documented the performance – both across all reaches and by stream type (e.g., reservoir or groundwater influence) – as a baseline for future improvement. The model showed reach-level RMSE of <2 °C with 90 % prediction intervals that contain 90.7 % of observations. We also assessed how the model captured variability in ecologically relevant metrics (e.g., R2 for annual 7-day maximum = 0.76; R2 for days exceeding 25 °C = 0.75). This model does not outperform state-of-the-art machine learning efforts (e.g., RMSE ≤1.5 °C) due to a limited input set but does provide the most spatially complete modeling to date to support water availability assessments.
Suggested Citation
Diaz, J.A., Oliver, S.K., and Gorski, G., 2025, Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm: Environmental Modelling & Software, v. 193, 106655, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106655.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Evaluation of daily stream temperature predictions (1979-2021) across the contiguous United States using a spatiotemporal aware machine learning algorithm |
| Series title | Environmental Modelling & Software |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106655 |
| Volume | 193 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Contributing office(s) | WMA - Integrated Information Dissemination Division |
| Description | 106655, 16 p. |
| Country | United States |
| Other Geospatial | contiguous United States |