Supporting dryland restoration success with applied ecological forecasting of seeding outcomes
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Abstract
Introduction
Ecological restoration is increasingly used to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services. In drylands of the western United States (US), post-disturbance restoration often involves seeding treatments to promote the recovery of native plant communities. Spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions influences plant establishment and contributes to low restoration success in certain locations and years.
Objectives
Here, we discuss how forecasts for plant establishment can be developed and delivered to help land managers anticipate the impacts of near-term (months to years) environmental conditions on restoration.
Methods
We developed an ecological forecast system that predicts the outcome of restoration seeding by integrating weather forecasts, an ecosystem water balance model, and plant establishment models.
Results
In this article, we focus on a conceptual approach to developing, delivering, and applying ecological forecasts for restoration. We illustrate the potential of this approach by adapting existing ecological models to build an initial version of a decision support tool that delivers a species-specific ecological forecast for big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) establishment. Integrating ecological forecasts into plans for restoration seeding presents opportunities to anticipate and account for environmental variability.
Conclusions
Finally, we discuss how connecting research, forecast delivery, and management can maximize the impact of ecological forecasts on restoration success.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Supporting dryland restoration success with applied ecological forecasting of seeding outcomes |
| Series title | Restoration Ecology |
| DOI | 10.1111/rec.70179 |
| Edition | Online First |
| Publication Date | September 23, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Wiley |
| Contributing office(s) | Southwest Biological Science Center |
| Description | e70179, 10 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Idaho, Nevada |