Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.

Jinxun Liu; Benjamin M. Sleeter; Zhiliang Zhu; Mark A. Cochrane; Qiang Zhou; Bin Wang; Grant Domke; Paul Selmants; Lisamarie Windham-Myers; Qiuan Zhu; Tamara Wilson; Kristin Byrd; Eric Ward; Terry Sohl; Todd Hawbaker; Zhen Zhang; Christopher Soulard; Kimberly Wickland; Robert G. Striegl

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adx7823

Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.

Science Advances

By: Jinxun Liu, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu, Mark A. Cochrane, Qiang Zhou, Bin Wang, Grant Domke, Paul Selmants, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Qiuan Zhu, Tamara Wilson, Kristin Byrd, Eric Ward, Terry Sohl, Todd Hawbaker, Zhen Zhang, Christopher Soulard, Kimberly Wickland, and Robert G. Striegl

https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx7823

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Data Release: USGS data release - Land carbon sink in the conterminous US from 1985 to 2020
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Abstract

The land carbon sink of the conterminous United States was evaluated using a bottom-up modeling framework and 30-meter land change data from 1985 to 2020. This cross-scale, cross-landscape, and cross-system approach tracked fractional land cover changes and applied regional model calibration. Results show average terrestrial and aquatic carbon sinks of +110 ± 37 and +19 ± 0.5 teragrams of carbon per year, respectively. The terrestrial carbon sink, showing no clear trend, peaked in the 1990s, with more years as a carbon source since 2000, contradicting recent national and global studies. Land change had the largest impact (−70 ± 5.5 teragrams of carbon per year), exceeding impacts of climate (−33 ± 48 teragrams of carbon per year), wildfire (−7.7 ± 2.4 teragrams of carbon per year), and erosion transport (−1.9 ± 0.13 teragrams of carbon per year). The positive CO2 fertilization effect (+69 ± 12 teragrams of carbon per year) was insufficient to maintain the carbon sink strength. Our framework reveals key paths of carbon loss, with implications for carbon budget and energy policies in the United States and beyond.

Suggested Citation

Liu, J., Sleeter, B., Zhu, Z., Cochrane, M.A., Zhou, Q., Wang, B., Domke, G., Selmants, P., Windham-Myers, L., Zhu, Q., Wilson, T., Byrd, K., Ward, E., Sohl, T., Hawbaker, T., Zhang, Z., Soulard, C., Wickland, K., Striegl, R.G., 2025, Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.: Science Advances, v. 11, no. 46, eadx7823, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adx7823.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Land change, fire, and climate weaken carbon sink in the conterminous U.S.
Series title	Science Advances
DOI	10.1126/sciadv.adx7823
Volume	11
Issue	46
Year Published	2025
Language	English
Publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Contributing office(s)	Western Geographic Science Center
Description	eadx7823, 16 p.
Country	United States
Other Geospatial	conterminous United States