Ultralong, supershear rupture of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake reveals unaccounted risk
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Abstract
The 28 March 2025 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.7 earthquake in Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar), ruptured 475 kilometers of the Sagaing Fault, which was more than twice the length predicted by magnitude scaling relationships. Kinematic slip models and observation of a Rayleigh Mach wave that passed through parts of Thailand confirmed that rupture occurred at supershear velocities of greater than 5 kilometers per second. The anomalous length exposed a vast population to violent near-fault shaking. The Mandalay earthquake is a modern analog for the Mw 7.9 1906 San Francisco earthquake, another atypically long and fast rupture. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses use scaling relations that do not account for such long ruptures at moderate magnitudes. This limitation, in conjunction with a likely increased population and infrastructure exposure for atypically long ruptures, contributes to a potential mischaracterization of seismic risk.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Ultralong, supershear rupture of the 2025 Mw 7.7 Mandalay earthquake reveals unaccounted risk |
| Series title | Science |
| DOI | 10.1126/science.ady3581 |
| Volume | 390 |
| Issue | 6772 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | AAAS |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Hazards Program, Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism |
| Description | 5 p. |
| First page | 458 |
| Last page | 462 |
| Country | Burma/Myanmar |
| City | Mandalay |