Rising sea level reduces carbon sequestration and CO2 and N2O fluxes while promoting CH4 flux from mangroves

Cell Reports Sustainability
By: , and 

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Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR) may reduce mangrove carbon sequestration by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—a key factor in forecasting the trajectory of blue carbon reserves. Nonetheless, predictions of future GHG fluxes under SLR remain uncertain. Unlike prior studies limited to controlled or single-site settings, we deploy cross-latitude “marsh-organ” designs in China to access GHG fluxes in mangroves and neighboring mudflats. Our findings show that SLR-stimulated CH4 emissions in mangroves could increase by 10% under RCP 4.5 and by 22% under RCP 8.5, relative to current sea level by 2100. Conversely, SLR decreases ecosystem respiration and N2O emissions by 35%–51% and 28%–36%, respectively, while net ecosystem productivity decreases by 12%–28% as SLR increases. Overall, our results forecast a 17%–30% decline in mangroves’ climate mitigation efficiency. We recommend focusing on non-CO2 GHG emissions from mangroves, as they may significantly offset climate mitigation capacity under climate change.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Rising sea level reduces carbon sequestration and CO2 and N2O fluxes while promoting CH4 flux from mangroves
Series title Cell Reports Sustainability
DOI 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100520
Volume 2
Issue 9
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher CellPress
Contributing office(s) Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Description 100520, 14 p.
Country China
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