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Climatological effects on survival, recruitment, and possible extirpation of a Sierra Nevada anuran

Climate Change Ecology
By: , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100099

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Abstract

The drivers of population dynamics are a primary interest of ecologists, and predicting the consequences of climate variability on wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of how weather causes variation in the vital rates of populations. Given recent and projected extremes in annual precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, including two severe droughts, we sought to examine the role of snowpack and summer water availability on the population dynamics and potential extirpation of a meadow population of the U.S. Endangered Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog (Rana sierrae) using a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset. We found that snowpack and summer water availability affected both survival and recruitment probabilities. Although these variables only explained approximately 17 % of the annual variation in adult survival, they explained 81 % of the variation in recruitment into the adult population. Following two severe, extended droughts and a nearby wildfire, the population consisted of 20 or fewer individuals with >95 % certainty, and 10 or fewer individuals with 64 % certainty. If realized, increased precipitation volatility and extended droughts likely present an additional threat to some meadow populations of this endangered frog.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Climatological effects on survival, recruitment, and possible extirpation of a Sierra Nevada anuran
Series title Climate Change Ecology
DOI 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100099
Volume 10
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Western Ecological Research Center
Description 100099, 11 p.
Country United States
State California
Other Geospatial Summit Meadow, Yosemite National Park
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