Structural controls on splay fault rupture dynamics during Cascadia megathrust earthquakes

AGU Advances
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Abstract

Great subduction earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.0) can generate devastating tsunamis by rapidly displacing the seafloor and overlying water column. These potentially tsunamigenic seafloor offsets result from coseismic fault slip and deformation beneath or within the accretionary wedge. The mechanics of these shallow rupture phenomena and their dependence on subduction zone properties remain unresolved, partly due to the sparsity of offshore observations of shallow megathrust earthquake deformation. Here, we analyze how offshore structure influences shallow rupture mechanics and slip partitioning using 3D dynamic earthquake simulations of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) megathrust with and without variably dipping seaward- or landward-vergent splay faults in the wedge that sole into the megathrust. Resulting tradeoffs between splay and megathrust slip reveal structural controls on rupture partitioning, with greater splay slip leading to less shallow megathrust slip updip. Gently dipping and seaward-vergent splays host more slip than those with steeper, landward-vergent splays. To isolate the underlying mechanisms, we compare models with Andersonian and plunging principal stresses. Results suggest distinct static and dynamic processes control the dip- and vergence-dependence of splay rupture: static (mis)alignment relative to far-field tectonic loading favors slip on more optimally oriented, shallowly dipping splay faults. In contrast, dynamic stress interactions of an updip-propagating megathrust rupture front with the free surface and potential branch faults favor forward branching onto seaward-vergent splays and inhibit backward branching onto landward-vergent splays. Resulting seafloor displacements suggest splay fault structure may influence coseismic tsunami source processes, highlighting the importance of dynamically viable rupture scenarios in subduction hazard assessments.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Structural controls on splay fault rupture dynamics during Cascadia megathrust earthquakes
Series title AGU Advances
DOI 10.1029/2025AV001812
Volume 6
Issue 6
Publication Date November 20, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center
Description e2025AV001812, 22 p.
Country Canada, United States
Other Geospatial Cascadia subduction zone
Additional publication details