A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
By: Edward H. Field, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Bruce E. Shaw, Morgan T. Page, P. Martin Mai, Kevin Ross Milner, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Frederick Pollitz, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Thomas E. Parsons, Olaf Zielke, David R. Shelly, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Devin McPhillips, Richard W. Briggs, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Nico Luco, Mark D. Petersen, Peter M. Powers, Justin Rubinstein, Allison Shumway, Nicholas van der Elst, Yuehua Zeng, Christopher DuRoss, and Jason M. Altekruse
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Abstract
We articulate a scientific vision and roadmap for the development of improved Earthquake Rupture Forecast models, which are one of the two main modeling components used in modern seismic hazard and risk analysis. One primary future objective is to provide fully time-dependent models that include both elastic rebound and spatiotemporal clustering nationwide, which is particularly important for shorter-term hazard and risk considerations (e.g., earthquake insurance products). We also discuss the importance and perennial challenges associated with quantifying epistemic uncertainties, including those associated with deformation-model slip rates, un-quantified sampling errors with respect to off-fault seismicity, and any spatial covariances. The need for more physics-based approaches is also emphasized, as is the benefit of adding model valuation (quantifying usefulness) to our verification and validation protocols. Given the multidisciplinary and system-level nature of this activity, modular design is critical. Future updates will also draw from best-available science by both the United States Geological Survey and the external community. The primary goal of this paper is to highlight plans that guide research and facilitate community engagement with model development, especially with respect to lowering the entry barrier for early career scientists and engineers. The paper is written so readers can focus on the sections that interest them most (see table of contents), with the Introduction and Discussion providing a stand-alone overview and summary.
Suggested Citation
Field, E.H., Hatem, A.E., Shaw, B.E., Page, M.T., Mai, P.M., Milner, K., Llenos, A.L., Michael, A.J., Pollitz, F., Jobe, J.A., Parsons, T.E., Zielke, O., Shelly, D.R., Gabriel, A., McPhillips, D., Briggs, R.W., Cochran, E.S., Luco, N., Petersen, M.D., Powers, P.M., Rubinstein, J., Shumway, A., van der Elst, N., Zeng, Y., DuRoss, C., Altekruse, J.M., 2025, A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v. 115, no. 6, p. 2523-2552, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120240217.
ISSN: 1943-3573 (online)
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | A scientific vision and roadmap for earthquake rupture forecast developments, a USGS perspective |
| Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| DOI | 10.1785/0120240217 |
| Volume | 115 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Publication Date | September 02, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Seismological Society of America |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism |
| Description | 30 p. |
| First page | 2523 |
| Last page | 2552 |
| Country | United States |