Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
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Abstract
Study region
The Russian River watershed, situated in coastal, northern California, experiences hydrologic extremes, including periodic droughts and flooding. Water managers are working to maintain sustainable water supplies and environmental flows, while mitigating flood risks.
Study focus
This paper introduces an integrated hydrology and river operations model for the Russian River watershed. This model is distinct from models in previous studies because it represents surface-groundwater interactions and uses climate forcings to estimate dynamic water use demands that are superimposed onto both reservoir operations and water supply constraints. The model was used to examine three historical (1990–2015) and eight future (2016–2099) water use and climate change scenarios.
New hydrological insights for the region
The direct connection between streams and aquifers facilitated both annual aquifer replenishment by high winter streamflows and streamflow depletion by groundwater wells (19 % of pumped groundwater in alluvial aquifers from stream leakage) during critical low flow periods. Simulated streamflow changes included 59 % longer and 54 % more severe streamflow droughts, 26 % lower seasonal low streamflows, and up to 125 % higher peak streamflows, averaged over future climate and water use scenarios, suggesting increased future flood and water availability risks. Results showed the importance of reservoir operations for mitigating the impacts of increased hydroclimatic volatility, despite a decrease in reservoir reliability at Lake Mendocino, suggesting that reservoir management may be used to decrease future risks.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Assessing future hydrologic extremes using an integrated hydrology and river operations model in the Russian River watershed |
| Series title | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103016 |
| Volume | 63 |
| Publication Date | January 06, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Contributing office(s) | California Water Science Center |
| Description | 103016, 24 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| Other Geospatial | Russian River watershed |