Coral reef protection may help avert risks to people, property, and economic activity caused by projected reef eegradation

Earth's Future
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Abstract

Degradation of coral reefs over the past several decades has caused regional-scale erosion of the shallow seafloor that serves as a protective barrier against coastal hazards along southeast Florida, USA. How future change in coral reefs may affect coastal flooding, however, has been less attended than other factors contributing to increasing risks such as sea-level rise and more intense storms. Here, the increased flooding hazard faced by Florida's coastal communities from the projected future degradation of its adjacent coral reefs is evaluated through oceanographic, coastal engineering, habitat, geospatial, and socioeconomic modeling. Risk-based valuation approaches were followed to map flood zones at 10-m2 resolution along 430 km of Florida's reef-lined coast for the current and projected future coral reef conditions. The projected degradation of Florida's coral reefs can increase annual flooding to more than 8.77 km2 of land and 4,980 km of roads, affecting more than 7,315 people, $412.5 million in damages to 1,400 buildings, and economic disruption of $438.1 million annually (2024 US dollars). The degradation of Florida's coral reefs would increase the annual risk to people and structures by more than 42% and 47%, respectively, but is spatially variable due to the heterogeneous alongshore nature and distribution of the reefs and communities: the increased risk exceeds $1 million/km annually to more than 17% of the coastline but also disproportionately would affect vulnerable populations. These results help identify areas where coral reef protection could help reduce the projected increased storm flooding risk to Florida's coastal communities.

Suggested Citation

Storlazzi, C.D., Reguero, B., Yates, K., Alkins, K., Shope, J.B., Gaido-Lasserre, C., Fregoso, T., Beck, M.W., 2026, Coral reef protection may help avert risks to people, property, and economic activity caused by projected reef eegradation: Earth's Future, v. 14, no. 1, e2025EF006255, 15 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006255.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Coral reef protection may help avert risks to people, property, and economic activity caused by projected reef eegradation
Series title Earth's Future
DOI 10.1029/2025EF006255
Volume 14
Issue 1
Publication Date January 16, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description e2025EF006255, 15 p.
Country United States
State Florida
Other Geospatial Florida Keys
Additional publication details