Viral outbreak dynamics and evolution in wildlife at the interface with humans

Rachael Marie Giglio; Aaron Westmoreland; Mark Q. Wilber; Grete WIlson-Henjum; Aung Nyein Chan; Billy Gardner; Wantida Horpiencharoen; Roderick B. Gagne; Avery M. Corondi; Alec Baker; Matthew A. Combs; Jefferey Chandler; Kezia R. Manlove; Kim M. Pepin; W. David Walter

doi:10.1098/rsbl.2025.0540

Viral outbreak dynamics and evolution in wildlife at the interface with humans

Biology Letters

By: Rachael Marie Giglio, Aaron Westmoreland, Mark Q. Wilber, Grete WIlson-Henjum, Aung Nyein Chan, Billy Gardner, Wantida Horpiencharoen, Roderick B. Gagne, Avery M. Corondi, Alec Baker, Matthew A. Combs, Jefferey Chandler, Kezia R. Manlove, Kim M. Pepin, and W. David Walter

https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2025.0540

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Abstract

In this study, we used a multi-faceted approach to understand patterns of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and persistence in a wild white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. Serology data indicated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and persistence during the seven-month sampling period. Traditional disease modelling based on deer-to-deer transmission indicated relatively low prevalence with an R₀ of 1.9 and recovery period of 7 days; however, individual-based modelling informed by GPS tracked-movement data captured a potential transmission event. Phylogenetic analyses revealed a recurring pattern of divergent groups of deer-derived sequences with human-derived sequences falling close to each deer-derived cluster. Further, human-derived sequences were frequently sampled months prior to the deer-derived sequences, indicating repeated human to deer spillover. Using multiple types of data as well as both fine and broad scale analyses, we have characterized a pattern of localized outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 within white-tailed deer populations that are likely recurring due to frequent spillover events. Our results suggest that while deer-to-deer transmission occurs over small spatiotemporal scales, SARS-CoV-2 persistence over longer periods and across larger regions is likely driven by repeated spillover from human populations.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Viral outbreak dynamics and evolution in wildlife at the interface with humans
Series title	Biology Letters
DOI	10.1098/rsbl.2025.0540
Volume	21
Issue	12
Publication Date	December 10, 2025
Year Published	2025
Language	English
Publisher	The Royal Society Publishing
Contributing office(s)	Coop Res Unit Leetown
Description	20250540, 7 p.
Country	United States
State	Pennsylvania
County	Clearfield County
Other Geospatial	Treasure Lake