More water, more of the time: Spatial changes in flooding over 83 years in the upper Mississippi River floodplain and relationships with streamgage-derived proxies

Water Resources Research
By: , and 

Links

Abstract

The hydrologic regime of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) has become wetter, with greater discharges, longer-lasting high-flow conditions, and seasonal shifts in these patterns over the past several decades. How these changes are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing is not well understood. It is also unclear to what degree spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone. We assessed changes in floodplain inundation characteristics from 1940 to 2022 in navigation pools 3–10 of the UMR using a geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths. Inundation characteristics shifted significantly across pools, but the direction and magnitude of change varied by pool and metric. Characteristics summarized at the pool scale correlated with streamgage-derived proxies but the strength of the relationship varied. Within pools, variability in inundation trends highlighted the importance of spatially explicit modeling. Our study demonstrates that changes in discharge over 83 years have manifested across the UMR floodplain in ways that may have consequences for ecological patterns and processes. By mapping hydrologically sensitive areas, we can anticipate which areas may be susceptible to additional shifts in river discharge in a climatically uncertain future.

Suggested Citation

Van Appledorn, M., De Jager, N.R., Rohweder, J.J., Windmuller-Campione, M., Griffin, D., 2026, More water, more of the time: Spatial changes in flooding over 83 years in the upper Mississippi River floodplain and relationships with streamgage-derived proxies: Water Resources Research, v. 62, no. 1, e2025WR040614, 20 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR040614.

ISSN: 1944-7973 (online)

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title More water, more of the time: Spatial changes in flooding over 83 years in the upper Mississippi River floodplain and relationships with streamgage-derived proxies
Series title Water Resources Research
DOI 10.1029/2025WR040614
Volume 62
Issue 1
Publication Date January 14, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center
Description e2025WR040614, 20 p.
Country United States
State Iowa, Minnesota, Wiscosnin
Other Geospatial Upper Mississippi River floodplain
Additional publication details