A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework
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Abstract
Purpose of Review
We review how ‘abrupt thaw’ has been used in published studies, compare these definitions to abrupt processes in other Earth science disciplines, and provide a definitive framework for how abrupt thaw should be used in the context of permafrost science.
Recent Findings
We address several aspects of permafrost systems necessary for abrupt thaw to occur and propose a framework for classifying permafrost processes as abrupt thaw in the future. Based on a literature review and our collective expertise, we propose that abrupt thaw refers to thaw processes that lead to a substantial persistent environmental change within a few decades. Abrupt thaw typically occurs in ice-rich permafrost but may be initiated in ice-poor permafrost by external factors such as hydrologic change (i.e., increased streamflow, soil moisture fluctuations, altered groundwater recharge) or wildfire.
Summary
Permafrost thaw alters greenhouse gas emissions, soil and vegetation properties, and hydrologic flow, threatening infrastructure and the cultures and livelihoods of northern communities. The term ‘abrupt thaw’ has emerged in scientific discourse over the past two decades to differentiate processes that rapidly impact large depths of permafrost, such as thermokarst, from more gradual, top-down thaw processes that impact centimeters of near-surface permafrost over years to decades. However, there has been no formal definition for abrupt thaw and its use in the scientific literature has varied considerably. Our standardized definition of abrupt thaw offers a path forward to better understand drivers and patterns of abrupt thaw and its consequences for global greenhouse gas budgets, impacts to infrastructure and land-use, and Arctic policy- and decision-making.
Suggested Citation
Webb, H., Fuchs, M., Abbott, B.W., Douglas, T.A., Elder, C.D., Ernakovich, J.G., Euskirchen, E., Göckede, M., Grosse, G., Hugelius, G., Jones, M.C., Koven, C., Kropp, H., Lathrop, E., Li, W., Loranty, M.M., Natali, S.M., Olefeldt, D., Christina Schädel, Schuur, E.A., Sonnentag, O., Strauss, J., Virkkala, A., and Merritt R. Turetsky, 2025, A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework: Current Climate Change Reports, v. 11, 7, 15 p., https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-025-00204-3.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | A review of abrupt permafrost thaw: Definitions, usage, and a proposed conceptual framework |
| Series title | Current Climate Change Reports |
| DOI | 10.1007/s40641-025-00204-3 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Publication Date | July 24, 2025 |
| Year Published | 2025 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer |
| Contributing office(s) | Florence Bascom Geoscience Center |
| Description | 7, 15 p. |