Density as a mechanism linking habitat disturbance to increased pathogen prevalence: Evidence from a natural experiment

Ecology
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Abstract

Sudden habitat loss associated with environmental disturbance can trigger animals to move from affected to undisturbed areas, where increases in local density may occur. Although pathogen transmission is strongly related to local density, how crowding after habitat loss affects infection dynamics in wild populations remains unclear. Here we conceptualize the Disturbance-Density-Disease hypothesis, which posits that disturbance-induced habitat loss results in increased pathogen prevalence via increases in local density at adjacent, undisturbed patches. We then used data from before, during, and after flooding disturbance to test this hypothesis in boreal toads Anaxyrus boreas boreas co-occurring with the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We collected Bd samples from captured individuals during a 5-year (2015–2019) mark-recapture study of boreal toads (n = 1295) that breed in beaver ponds in western Wyoming, USA. During spring of 2017, an extreme flooding event destroyed several beaver dams, resulting in the loss of breeding habitat. We compared host density and pathogen prevalence pre- and post-disturbance at sites affected versus unaffected by flooding. At affected sites, population density and Bd prevalence increased at adjacent, undisturbed ponds following the sudden loss of habitat. Moreover, neither host density nor Bd prevalence increased at control sites in areas unaffected by flooding. Taken together, our results support hypothesized links between disturbance, adjacent increases in density, and subsequent increases in pathogen prevalence. Our study contributes to a growing body of ecological research leveraging natural experiments to extract insights from extreme disturbance events. By doing so, we demonstrate an important consequence of disturbance beyond proximate habitat loss and introduce a clear conceptual approach (the Disturbance-Density-Disease hypothesis) to understanding how pathogen transmission can be affected by disturbance via alterations to local density.

Suggested Citation

Barrile, G.M., Chalfoun, A.D., Walters, A.W., Merkle, J.A., 2025, Density as a mechanism linking habitat disturbance to increased pathogen prevalence: Evidence from a natural experiment: Ecology, v. 106, no. 11, e70265, 15 p., https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70265.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Density as a mechanism linking habitat disturbance to increased pathogen prevalence: Evidence from a natural experiment
Series title Ecology
DOI 10.1002/ecy.70265
Volume 106
Issue 11
Publication Date November 26, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher Ecological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Seattle
Description e70265, 15 p.
Country United States
State Wyoming
Other Geospatial Bridger-Teton National Forest, northern Wyoming Range, Wind River Range
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