Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north

Final Report
By: , and 

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Abstract

As environmental conditions change, land managers are increasingly concerned about the potential for new aquatic invasive species to move into their jurisdictions. Because managers may have limited resources, detecting invasive species early is important as prevention is more effective and less costly than ongoing mitigation of established populations. Tools built to assist early detection efforts often use information on pathways of spread (how species move through a landscape) and maps of suitability (where habitat allows a species to live and reproduce). While each is useful, information on pathways or suitability alone provides only a part of the story of invasion risk. To better anticipate the risk of invasive species expanding their ranges into the Northeast U.S., there is a need to improve the way we combine and use pathways and suitability information, especially across large areas (e.g., states, regions). To fill this need, we took a new approach that combines estimates of current and future suitability with a diverse variety of pathways that gives us invasion risk scores for more than 100 freshwater invaders (fishes, plants, and invertebrates) across the Northeast U.S. In this report, we provide an overview of our methodology, results, and a description of the ongoing work to make the data publicly available. This work can be used to aid early detection efforts and associated management activities at state and local levels, including the identification of invasion risk hotspots and ranking of individual species risk to help anticipate and prevent invader establishment.

Suggested Citation

Jarnevich, C.S., Engelstad, P., LeClare, S.K., Inman, R.D., Pfingsten, I., Daniel, W., 2026, Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north: Final Report, 12 p.

Study Area

Publication type Report
Publication Subtype Federal Government Series
Title Future aquatic invaders of the Northeast U.S.: How climate change, human vectors, and natural history could bring southern and western species north
Series title Final Report
Publication Date February 20, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Contributing office(s) Fort Collins Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Description 12 p.
Country United States
Other Geospatial northeast United States
Additional publication details