The U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast

Kevin Ross Milner; Alexandra Elise Hatem; Richard W. Briggs; Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe; Andrea L. Llenos; Andrew J. Michael; Allison Shumway; Edward H. Field; Kirstie Lafon Haynie

doi:10.1785/0120250040

The U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

By: Kevin Ross Milner, Alexandra Elise Hatem, Richard W. Briggs, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Allison Shumway, Edward H. Field, and Kirstie Lafon Haynie

https://doi.org/10.1785/0120250040

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Abstract

We present the 2025 U.S. Geological Survey Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands (PRVI) time‐independent earthquake rupture forecast (ERF), developed for the 2025 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for PRVI. The updated ERF improves upon a prior model from 2003, including an expanded fault inventory with slip‐rate estimates, updated seismicity catalogs, and refined subduction zone geometries and deformation models. It applies the fault‐system inversion methodology to solve for rates of ruptures on modeled faults, adapted from the 2023 NSHM (NSHM23) for the western United States, including the first application of the inversion to model rates on a U.S. subduction interface. Off‐fault and intraslab seismicity are constrained by observed seismicity and use updated methods developed for NSHM23. Uncertainties in model components are substantial, and the ERF represents epistemic uncertainties through a comprehensive logic tree consisting of 1.7 billion logic‐tree branches combined across all sources.

Suggested Citation

Milner, K., Hatem, A.E., Briggs, R.W., Jobe, J.A., Llenos, A.L., Michael, A.J., Shumway, A., Field, E.H., and Haynie, K.L., 2026, The U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120250040.

ISSN: 1943-3573 (online)

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	The U.S. Geological Survey 2025 Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands time-independent earthquake rupture forecast
Series title	Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI	10.1785/0120250040
Edition	Online First
Publication Date	March 16, 2026
Year Published	2026
Language	English
Publisher	Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s)	Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism
Country	United States
Other Geospatial	Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands