Following near extirpation from the fur trade, sea otters (Enhydra lutris) have returned to occupy lower Cook Inlet since the 1950s, or earlier, with numbers increasing to ~11,000 and ~9,000 on the west and east side, respectively, by 2017. Northward range expansion on the west side has been negligible for decades with few animals found north of Kamishak Bay, while northward expansion on the east side has been more pronounced in recent decades. The reasons for these contrasting distribution patterns are not certain. Possible explanations for lack of expansion on the west side included 1) poor sea otter habitat north of Kamishak Bay; 2) adequate habitat north of Kamishak Bay but no incentive for sea otters to move north because of abundant food in Kamishak Bay, and/or sea otters discouraged from moving north of Kamishak Bay; 3) seasonal ice formation; or 4) seasonal presence of killer whales. This project was designed to document current sea otter abundance and distribution in lower Cook Inlet, including seasonal variation, and evaluate drivers of habitat use and foraging conditions, including how these overlap with Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Lease Sale blocks. 

We found that the probability of sea otter presence in lower Cook Inlet was significantly related to depth and distance from shore with the highest probabilities of sea otter presence in areas ~7–8 kilometers (km) from shore in water ~20–30 meters (m) deep. Historical survey data suggest sea otter distribution has not changed dramatically since 2002, and while we detected significant seasonal changes including due to presence of heavy sea ice, the seasonal changes were modest and primarily related to locations with consistent winter ice formation on the west side of lower Cook Inlet. Overall, throughout the year, sea otters appeared to be utilizing most of the habitat within the 40-m depth contour on the east side of lower Cook Inlet, including Kachemak Bay. Sea otters on the west side reside largely within Kamishak Bay. Because of the shallow bathymetry of lower Cook Inlet, sea otters consistently occurred farther offshore than in many other areas of Alaska. The presence of sea otters, including females with pups, in these offshore waters indicates that sea otters can forage productively in these open water areas. Importantly, we documented that sea otters, including females with pups, occurred in most of the eastern BOEM lease blocks including the original Lease Sale 244 blocks 7064, 7114, 6162, 6310, 6360, 6410, 6458 and 6457. The relinquishments for these 7 leases were effective September 17, 2024: OCS-Y-02434 (block # 7064), OCS-Y-02435 (7114), OCS-Y-02436 (6162), OCS-Y-02438 (6357), OCS-Y-02442 (6407), OCS-Y02446 (6457), OCS-Y-02447 (6458) https://www.boem.gov/sites/default/files/documents/environment/Map%20of%20Active%20Leases%20 Cook%20Inlet%20OCS_0.pdf 

Regarding differential northward expansion on the east and west side of lower Cook Inlet, we found that wind and water circulation patterns make winter sea ice more prominent on the west side, but this had minimal effects on sea otter distribution. In addition, although there have been observations of killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation on sea otters in Cook Inlet, we did not see behavioral or distributional evidence that it was prevalent enough to have strong effects on sea otter habitat use. Benthic surveys using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) indicated that epibenthic substrate and biological community heterogeneity differed between areas with and without otters, suggesting that these factors may explain the current distribution of otters within lower Cook Inlet. However, ROV surveys cannot assess infaunal prey abundance, making assessments of the role of prey availability difficult. The existence of a healthy Pacific razor clam (Siliqua patula) fishery along western lower Cook Inlet along the Lake Clark coast north of Kamishak Bay suggests there may still be a resource base for eventual expansion of sea otters into this area. 

Our shore-based forage observations indicated that sea otters exist near carrying capacity densities relative to nearshore prey resources. However, our distribution model suggests the bulk of the population lives offshore beyond our ability to observe their feeding activity. The fact that sea otters are a consistent presence in offshore areas suggests that prey resources in these areas were relatively abundant in comparison to nearshore prey resources, making foraging in offshore areas, with water depths of 0–40 m, energetically profitable. Prey types in these offshore areas of lower Cook Inlet likely included epifauna such as crabs and large urchins, in addition to infaunal clams based on the soft substrate habitat types that characterize lower Cook Inlet.  

Collectively, our results suggest that sea otters occupy most areas of lower Cook Inlet with appropriate benthic habitat types and prey resources, which includes areas within BOEM Lease Sale blocks. With the exception of the Lake Clark coast, sea otters may be approaching a food- and habitat-limited distribution and carrying capacity, suggesting that the current status of sea otters in lower Cook Inlet is likely to remain similar in the absence of significant changes to prey, habitat, predation, or anthropogenic disturbance.