Influence of modeling assumptions on pedestrian evacuation success for non-eruptive lahar hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
By:  and 

Links

Abstract

Previous efforts to characterize lahar threats posed to communities downstream of volcanoes have focused primarily on delineating hazard zones that lack information on lahar-arrival times and exposure estimates that implicitly treat threats to be the same regardless of distance from the volcano. Estimated lahar-arrival times, travel times for individuals to leave hazard zones, and possible evacuation delays related to event identification, warning dissemination, and evacuee behavior are important, but often overlooked, aspects of understanding the societal threats posed by lahars. These temporal considerations are important for unexpected lahars that could occur due to slope failure in the absence of precursory volcanic unrest or eruption. This case study examines the role of time in lahar evacuations by quantifying population exposure and evacuation potential for non-eruptive lahar hazards associated with Mount Rainier, Washington. Lahars could directly affect tens of thousands of residents and employees, thousands of students at primary and secondary schools, and hundreds of individuals at long-term residential care facilities. Geospatial path-distance modeling quantified evacuation potential for 736 scenarios that represent combinations of lahar sources, evacuation destinations, pedestrian travel speeds, and a range of departure-delay assumptions. Depending on location, some communities may have substantial loss of life in tens of minutes after lahar initiation, whereas other communities may be managing large-scale evacuations over several hours. Estimates of evacuation success based on a range of scenarios provide individuals in hazard zones and risk-reduction agencies with insights on how their actions may increase or decrease the number of people that survive future lahars.

Suggested Citation

Wood, N.J., and Peters, J., 2026, Influence of modeling assumptions on pedestrian evacuation success for non-eruptive lahar hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, v. 139, 106132, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106132.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Influence of modeling assumptions on pedestrian evacuation success for non-eruptive lahar hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington
Series title International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
DOI 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106132
Volume 139
Publication Date April 07, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Western Geographic Science Center
Description 106132, 16 p.
Country United States
State Washington
Other Geospatial Mount Rainier region
Additional publication details