Evaluating alternative methods for modeling trap efficiencies of out-migrating juvenile salmonids
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
We aimed to compare two machine learning approaches—boosted beta regression (BBR) and beta mixed model forest (BMF)—to a Bayesian mixed-effects beta regression (BME) for the prediction of rotary screw trap (RST) efficiency for out-migrating juvenile salmonids from environmental covariates.
We identified two machine learning approaches that shared the ability to model overdispersed probabilities. We compared the BBR and BMF machine learning models to a BME model to evaluate precision in detection probability prediction and model performance on bias in parameter estimation. We tested our three candidate models using a simulation study to understand the specific advantages and disadvantages of each when the data set was increasingly sparse and the capture probabilities were realistically small. We then applied the models to a case study of RST data from the Klamath River in California, United States.
The BME and BMF outperformed BBR in all simulated scenarios, although the BMF displayed poor explanatory power. In the case study, the BME and BMF identified environmental covariates that predicted RST efficiency.
Using the BME as a benchmark for comparing machine learning approaches to trap efficiency modeling, our simulations and case study demonstrated that the BMF performed well and is a viable modeling approach with strong predictive power. The BME model would be the preferred modeling approach when its strong explanatory power is desired.
Suggested Citation
Walden, M.A., and Som, N., 2026, Evaluating alternative methods for modeling trap efficiencies of out-migrating juvenile salmonids: North American Journal of Fisheries Management, v. 46, no. 2, p. 478-494, https://doi.org/10.1093/najfmt/vqag005.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Evaluating alternative methods for modeling trap efficiencies of out-migrating juvenile salmonids |
| Series title | North American Journal of Fisheries Management |
| DOI | 10.1093/najfmt/vqag005 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication Date | March 06, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Oxford Academic |
| Contributing office(s) | Coop Res Unit Seattle |
| Description | 17 p. |
| First page | 478 |
| Last page | 494 |