Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Emergency assessments of postfire debris-flow hazards that are performed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide estimates of debris-flow likelihood and rainfall triggering conditions that are used for evaluating and managing runoff-generated debris-flow hazards in recently burned areas throughout the western United States. Although the immediate postfire period, within roughly one year after fire, is typically the most susceptible to runoff-generated debris flows, the hazard evolves in time and space as the burned area recovers. The recovery trajectory a given burned area will take depends on local climate and weather and can be difficult to predict. Some burned areas recover quickly, whereas others experience debris flows for multiple years after fire. As a result, extending our ability to update debris-flow likelihood estimates and rainfall thresholds based on observed recovery of the burned area would be beneficial. We present a method for multi-year runoff-generated debris-flow hazard assessment that leverages the USGS “M1” debris-flow likelihood model and integrates updated, satellite-derived, normalized burn ratio data to estimate vegetation recovery. We predict recovery-aware rainfall thresholds and validate them against a multi-year debris-flow hazard prediction and could be adapted for use with other debris-flow models that incorporate burn severity data.
Suggested Citation
Graber, A.P., Thomas, M.A., Kean, J.W., King, J., and Kostelnik, J., 2026, Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover: Geosphere, 22 p., https://doi.org/10.1130/GES02936.1.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Characterizing changes in postfire debris-flow hazard as burned areas recover |
| Series title | Geosphere |
| DOI | 10.1130/GES02936.1 |
| Edition | Online First |
| Publication Date | April 16, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Geological Society of America |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center - Landslides / Earthquake Geology |
| Description | 22 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Washington |
| Other Geospatial | western United States |