Spatial heterogeneity of salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise: Dual controls of hydrological setting and salinity regime
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Abstract
Salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise (SLR) is typically assessed using point measurements of vertical accretion, neglecting three-dimensionality of geomorphic evolution and spatial variability. Recent studies suggest links between vertical and horizontal vulnerability, with differences between oligohaline and polyhaline marshes, yet these relationships remain untested in estuary-marsh systems. Here we combine geospatial analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate how unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratio (UVVR), a metric of marsh degradation, relates to elevation across hydrological regions and salinity regimes in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System, the largest lagoonal estuary in U.S. We show that at given normalized elevation, UVVR decreases across hydrological regions and salinity regimes from offshore to inland. UVVR-elevation relationship varies systematically with both hydrological setting and salinity regime, with hydrology exerting stronger influence. These findings challenge the assumption of a universal marsh deterioration trajectory and underscore the need to account for spatial heterogeneity when predicting responses to SLR.
Suggested Citation
Yin, D., Defne, Z., Ganju, N., Warner, J., Ralston, D.K., Harris, C.K., and Li, B., 2026, Spatial heterogeneity of salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise: Dual controls of hydrological setting and salinity regime: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 53, no. 8, e2025GL119461, 12 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL119461.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Spatial heterogeneity of salt marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise: Dual controls of hydrological setting and salinity regime |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025GL119461 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue | 8 |
| Publication Date | April 22, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Contributing office(s) | Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | e2025GL119461, 12 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | North Carolina |
| Other Geospatial | Albemarle‐Pamlico Estuarine System |