Spatially consistent but temporally divergent changes in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields in Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022

Journal of American Water Resources Association
By: , and 

Links

Abstract

Illinois contributes substantial nutrient loads to the Gulf of America, warranting watershed-scale assessment. This study estimated nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate-N) and total phosphorus (TP) loads and yields for 49 Illinois 8-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) watersheds draining to the Mississippi River Basin from 1997–2022, comparing recent (2018–2022) to baseline (1997–2011) conditions. Estimates included point and nonpoint source contributions, dissolved phosphorus, and water yields. During the recent period, nonpoint sources dominated nutrient export (82% nitrate-N, 78% TP), though point sources drove high yields in the Chicago area. Spatially, nonpoint source nutrient hotspots persisted with nitrate-N yields highest in east-central and northern Illinois and TP yields higher in southern and western Illinois. Temporally, statewide nitrate-N loads decreased 9%, while TP loads increased 27%. Nitrate-N yields increased in 22 HUC8s and decreased in 20, while TP yields increased in 32 HUC8s and decreased in 9. For both nutrients, baseline yields were negatively correlated with yield changes, indicating high-yielding watersheds tended toward larger decreases or smaller increases. Water yields increased 19% on average but were weakly correlated with nutrient yield changes (r = 0.23 and 0.20 for nitrate-N and TP). These results reveal spatially persistent yet temporally divergent nutrient export across Illinois, with contrasting nitrate-N and TP trajectories for nonpoint sources.

Suggested Citation

Kamrath, B.J., Murphy, J.C., Schafer, L.A., Podzorski, H.L., and McIsaac, G.F., 2026, Spatially consistent but temporally divergent changes in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields in Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022: Journal of American Water Resources Association, v. 62, no. 2, e70114, 18 p., https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70114.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Spatially consistent but temporally divergent changes in nitrate and phosphorus loads and yields in Illinois watersheds, 1997–2022
Series title Journal of American Water Resources Association
DOI 10.1111/1752-1688.70114
Volume 62
Issue 2
Publication Date April 22, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Journal of American Water Resources Association
Contributing office(s) Central Midwest Water Science Center
Description e70114, 18 p.
Country United States
State Illinois
Additional publication details