Aftershocks in stress shadows are inconsistent with modeled static Coulomb stress changes

Seismica
By:  and 

Metrics

Cited by publications in Crossref
Web analytics dashboard Metrics definitions

Links

Abstract

Aftershock triggering is commonly attributed to increases in static Coulomb stress.  In some areas, termed "stress shadows", a decrease in Coulomb stress is predicted to suppress earthquake occurrence.  However, aftershocks are often observed in the modeled stress shadows.  We examine several hypotheses that attempt to reconcile these shadow aftershocks with the static Coulomb stress change model: (1) they appear to be in shadows because of inaccuracy in the stress change calculations, (2) they occur on faults of unusual orientation which actually experienced increased Coulomb stress, (3) they occur on faults with different frictional properties, not modeled well by Coulomb stress, and (4) they are secondary aftershocks triggered by prior aftershocks or afterslip.  When tested on the 2016 Mw7.0 Kumamoto, Japan, and 2019 Mw7.1 Ridgecrest, California, aftershock sequences, none of these hypotheses can explain the majority of the shadow aftershocks, and taken together these hypotheses can explain only about half of these aftershocks. This implies that Coulomb stress modeling that lacks small-scale fault zone heterogeneity might be inadequate to fully capture the true static stress changes and/or that other physical triggering models are needed, for example transient processes such as delayed triggering by dynamic stress changes from the passing seismic waves.

Suggested Citation

Hardebeck, J.L., and Harris, R.A., 2025, Aftershocks in stress shadows are inconsistent with modeled static Coulomb stress changes: Seismica, v. 42, no. 2, 1657, 17 p., https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v4i2.1657.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Aftershocks in stress shadows are inconsistent with modeled static Coulomb stress changes
Series title Seismica
DOI 10.26443/seismica.v4i2.1657
Volume 42
Issue 2
Publication Date October 29, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher McGill
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 1657, 17 p.
Country Japan, United States
State California
City Kumamoto, Ridgecrest
Additional publication details