The Fifth National Climate Assessment updates the evidence regarding how climate change influences ecosystems, biological diversity, and the implications for changes to critical ecosystem services—as noted in the key messages above (McElwee et al., 2023). Large-scale transformational changes to ecosystems are occurring, including—but not limited to—land-use conversion, hydrological alteration, and fire regimes. Implications of such transformational change include ecosystem capacity to maintain biological diversity and ecosystem services, impacting recreational opportunities (e.g., hunting and fishing, birding, ecotourism) and agriculture production (McElwee et al., 2023). A central tenet of the Fifth National Climate Assessment regarding ecosystems was the shifts to alternative states and how the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework may guide the adaptive management of ecosystems moving forward (Lynch et al., 2022).

Nebraska is in the northern Great Plains, where extremes in climate and resulting ecosystem processes are experienced (Knapp et al., 2023). Pressures on ecosystems to provide essential services, including healthy soil and water to benefit humans and animals, will inevitably impact economic development, urban and rural communities, and fish and wildlife populations as climate change continues (Knapp et al., 2023). All ecosystems will be impacted in Nebraska, but aquatic systems—wetlands, aquifers, lakes, streams, and rivers—may be most impacted, given the scarcity of water as human demand (i.e., agriculture and a growing population) persists and increases (Bathke et al., 2014). Major knowledge gaps remain regarding how fish and wildlife populations will persist in changing environments. Past changes, including large-scale land conversion, water delivery systems, and water storage (construction of reservoirs), suggest that some species can adapt to novel environments and shift distributions. However, many more species may be maladapted to the expected changes in climate. Species may be unable to move to suitable habitats, and biological constraints under rapidly changing conditions may impede adaptation— resulting in extirpation and potential extinction. Further, changing conditions open multiple pathways for invasive species and novel diseases, impacting native fish populations, wildlife populations, and human health.