Thinking outside the rocks: Subsurface water storage, topography, and land cover are key modulators of large-scale riverine dissolved silicon dynamics
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Abstract
Riverine dissolved silicon (DSi) dynamics reflect integrated geologic, hydrologic, climatic, and ecological controls. We compiled annual DSi data for 337 rivers across four continents and trained interpretable machine-learning models to predict concentrations and yields from 28 watershed variables. Both models reproduced testing data (R2 = 0.85 for concentration and 0.96 for yield) and withheld-site validation (R2 = 0.91 and 0.93). Lithology, especially volcanic rock fraction, strongly controlled DSi while subsurface storage, topography, and land cover further shaped DSi dynamics. DSi concentrations and yields exhibited nonlinear responses to basin slope, recession-curve slope, proportion of open-water cover, and nutrient availability. Concentrations showed sharper threshold responses to hydrologic and biotic variables, whereas yields varied more gradually with climate and lithology. These results provide a framework for forecasting DSi under land cover and climate change and for embedding realistic, nonlinear processes in mechanistic models.
Suggested Citation
Bush, S.A., Johnson, K., Jankowski, K.J., Carey, J.C., Sethna, L.R., Lyon, N., and Sullivan, P.L., 2026, Thinking outside the rocks: Subsurface water storage, topography, and land cover are key modulators of large-scale riverine dissolved silicon dynamics: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 53, no. 2, e2025GL118853, 12 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118853.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Thinking outside the rocks: Subsurface water storage, topography, and land cover are key modulators of large-scale riverine dissolved silicon dynamics |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1029/2025GL118853 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication Date | January 28, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Contributing office(s) | Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center |
| Description | e2025GL118853, 12 p. |