Updating regional‐scale geospatial liquefaction models with locally available geotechnical data

Seismological Research Letters
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Abstract

We present a method to update the geospatial liquefaction model used by the U.S. Geological Survey’s near‐real‐time ground failure product with subsurface geotechnical data. The geospatial model estimates liquefaction probability from peak ground velocity (via ShakeMap) and geospatial susceptibility proxies. In many regions, additional information relevant to constraining liquefaction likelihood is also available, including surface geology maps and subsurface geotechnical measurements. There is currently no mechanism to use these data in the ground failure product liquefaction model, even though these data could provide more precise constraints on spatial variations in the lithologic character of the soil (surface geology) and direct measurements of the subsurface mechanical properties that affect liquefaction occurrence and severity (geotechnical measurements). In this study, we develop a method to integrate these data with the geospatial model and assess how these data can improve regional‐scale predictions. We develop a Bayesian updating framework and apply it to the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake, for which mapped observations are available to evaluate performance. We constrain the Bayesian framework with 373 Northern California cone penetration tests and liquefaction susceptibility classes based on the mapped surface geology. This Bayesian model incorporates geotechnical information into the geospatial model and more accurately predicts liquefaction occurrences than the geospatial model, while sacrificing less accuracy in terms of predicting the absence of liquefaction than the geotechnical model. In future applications, this approach could be adapted to update other geospatial models using locally available subsurface data.

Suggested Citation

Engler, D.T., Thompson, E.M., Maurer, B.W., Geyin, M., Burgi, P.M., Allstadt, K.E., and Jaiswal, K.S., 2025, Updating regional‐scale geospatial liquefaction models with locally available geotechnical data: Seismological Research Letters, v. 96, no. 6, p. 3365-3378, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220250134.

ISSN: 1938-2057 (online)

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Updating regional‐scale geospatial liquefaction models with locally available geotechnical data
Series title Seismological Research Letters
DOI 10.1785/0220250134
Volume 96
Issue 6
Publication Date September 17, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism
Description 14 p.
First page 3365
Last page 3378
Country United States
State California
Other Geospatial San Francisco Bay area
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