VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
By: , and 
Edited by: Gabriel B. Senay

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Abstract

Study region

Continental Africa, encompassing diverse climatic zones—tropical, arid, and temperate—and spanning major transboundary river basins such as the Nile, Niger, Congo, Volta, and Zambezi River Basins. The region exhibits pronounced hydroclimatic gradients and heterogeneous land use systems ranging from rainfed croplands and rangelands to dense tropical forests and irrigated schemes.

Study focus

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a central component of the terrestrial water balance, governing the redistribution of water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere. Accurate estimation of ETa at continental scale is critical for hydrological monitoring, water resource management, and climate adaptation, as well as for quantifying water, energy, and carbon fluxes that underpin sustainable development. In this study, we applied the agro-hydrologic VegET v2 model to simulate a new, high-resolution, continental-scale ETa dataset for Africa (2000–2021). The model results were benchmarked against four widely used remote sensing-based products—MODIS16 v6.1, SSEBop v6.1, WaPOR v3, and GLEAM v4.1a—across major climate zones, land use types, and River Basins, providing a comprehensive multi-product evaluation of evapotranspiration dynamics across the continent.

New hydrological insights for the region

Validation against eddy covariance flux tower observations at eight representative sites confirmed that VegET v2 accurately reproduces the seasonal dynamics of observed ETa, achieving a correlation (r) of 0.8 and an RMSE of 25 mm month⁻¹ —accuracy that is comparable to or higher than accuracies of satellite-based products MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM. This study represents one of the first Africa-wide hydrological simulations of ETa, extending the VegET model beyond basin-scale applications. Intercomparisons reveal that VegET aligns closely with MODIS16, SSEBop, and GLEAM in humid and tropical regions (r = 0.80–0.90; RMSE < 20 mm month⁻¹), while greater discrepancies appear in arid and semi-arid zones, where WaPOR tends to overestimate ETa (RMSE ≥ 28 mm month⁻¹). Despite these differences, VegET effectively captures spatial and temporal ETa variability across rainfed croplands, forests, and savannas, supporting its utility in regional water balance assessments, water accounting, and drought monitoring. A key application of VegET v2 is the Evapotranspiration Deficit Index (ETDI), derived by integrating VegET-based ETa with potential evapotranspiration (PET) to quantify water stress. ETDI successfully captured major drought episodes across Africa, including persistent Sahelian and southern African dry spells, the 2020–2021 winter drought in the Maghreb, and the 2018–2019 austral summer drought in southern Africa, while identifying positive anomalies over central Africa indicative of recurrent wetness. These results underscore VegET’s capability as a hydrologically consistent, operational tool for continental ETa monitoring and drought assessment, offering support for basin-scale water balance studies, food security planning, and climate resilience across Africa’s diverse hydrological environments.

Suggested Citation

Akpoti, K., Velpuri, N., Leh, M., Kagone, S., Mekonnen, K., Owusu, A., Tadesse, M., Prabhath, P.T., Madushanka, L., Perera, T., Parrish, G.E., Nangia, V., Sy, S., Bliefernicht, J., Guug, S., Seid, A., and Senay, G.B., 2026, VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, v. 66, 103511, 46 p., https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103511.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title VegET evapotranspiration for Africa: Continental-scale simulation, multi-product evaluation, and drought assessment
Series title Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
DOI 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103511
Volume 66
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 103511, 46 p.
Other Geospatial Africa
Additional publication details