Challenges and opportunities for national-scale projections of future coastal landscape change

Earth's Future
By: , and 

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Abstract

Local to global scale projections of future coastal landscape change are essential to improve land and resource management decisions that aim to prepare for and reduce risk exposure to impending coastal hazards. However, the availability of actionable knowledge is often limited due to the complexity of drivers of change, their consequences, and uncertainties that span disciplines. Varying spatial and temporal scales of physical processes that occur on landscapes with differing levels of coastal development and modification complicate decision-making. This paper reviews advances in observational approaches, modeling, and quantification of uncertainty to support the next generation of coastal change projections. We also highlight transdisciplinary opportunities for making this information more accessible and useful to support decision-making in the coastal zone. This includes consideration of different levels of user engagement to address specific needs, as well as resources and mechanisms that can support knowledge transfer broadly. A central recommendation is the development of a coordinated framework to support research integration including three components: accounting for relevant drivers, processes, and feedbacks; working with users to identify their information needs; and generating meaningful projections and uncertainty. Actions that would support such frameworks include the evaluation of models through coordinated research approaches and multi-model comparisons; ongoing investments in observations and data-driven approaches necessary to understand this complex environment; expansion of modeling capabilities using novel techniques; prioritization of co-development efforts between researchers and users; and continued training and support for transdisciplinary research.

Plain Language Summary

Producing both detailed and widely available information on how the coast may change in the future is critical for informing proactive strategies that protect communities and places of value. Predicting which areas are likely to become inundated in the future is often a first step; however, understanding other possible changes and where those changes are likely is much more difficult. For example, sea-level rise, storms, and other coastal hazards fundamentally reshape coastal landforms and habitats, such as through the formation of new inlets along beaches or permanent flooding of wetlands. This paper reviews the scientific knowledge, methods, and products currently available to inform what, where, and when future changes might happen, as well as how this information can be developed in coordination with those who need this information to ensure it is useful and meaningful. We also identify challenges that exist in accurately predicting coastal change, opportunities for improvements, and remaining information and data gaps. We conclude by discussing strategies for scientists and intended users to work together across disciplines in a manner that informs research questions and intended products to provide actionable information.

Suggested Citation

Lentz, E.E., Passeri, D.L., Zeigler, S.L., White, K., Wahl, T., Stoltz, A.D., Pendleton, E.A., Misra, S., Meckley, T.D., Hamlington, B., Ganju, N., Cravens, A.E., Carr, J., and Buckel, C.A., 2026, Challenges and opportunities for national-scale projections of future coastal landscape change: Earth's Future, v. 14, no. 4, e2024EF005833, 33 p., https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005833.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Challenges and opportunities for national-scale projections of future coastal landscape change
Series title Earth's Future
DOI 10.1029/2024EF005833
Volume 14
Issue 4
Publication Date March 31, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description e2024EF005833, 33 p.
Country Mexico, United States
State Alaska, California, Florida, New York
Other Geospatial Barter Island, Cabo San Lucas, Cedar Key National Wildlife Refuge, Merrit Island National Wildlife Refuge, Point Reyes National Seashore
Additional publication details