Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport

Nature Sustainability
By: , and 

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Abstract

Climate warming and deglaciation are reshaping hydrological seasonality in cold–dry regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of agriculture, ecosystems and local communities. However, existing evidence is limited to runoff seasonality. Changing sediment-transport seasonality, a more sensitive component, is emerging as a substantial yet under-recognized threat to water infrastructure. Leveraging monthly observations from the upper Tarim River from the 1960s to 2000s, we show that a warmer and wetter climate has intensified sediment-transport seasonality, with a 43% increase in summer sediment fluxes. Over half of this amplification stems from more frequent extreme sediment transport, particularly events triggered by high sediment supply rather than high discharge. Supported by a state-of-the-art river change dataset, we show that enhanced sediment seasonality and extreme sediment transport have largely contributed to increased river mobility since 2000. Sediment-driven changes are pushing riverine processes towards greater unpredictability and pose growing threats to water infrastructure and water security in vulnerable cold–dry regions.

Suggested Citation

Zhang, T., Best, J.L., East, A.E., Rosa, L., Wu, Q., Li, Y., Qi, Y., Li, Y., and Li, D., 2026, Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport: Nature Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01829-4.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport
Series title Nature Sustainability
DOI 10.1038/s41893-026-01829-4
Edition Online First
Publication Date May 06, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Nature
Contributing office(s) Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Additional publication details