Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport
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Abstract
Climate warming and deglaciation are reshaping hydrological seasonality in cold–dry regions, threatening the long-term sustainability of agriculture, ecosystems and local communities. However, existing evidence is limited to runoff seasonality. Changing sediment-transport seasonality, a more sensitive component, is emerging as a substantial yet under-recognized threat to water infrastructure. Leveraging monthly observations from the upper Tarim River from the 1960s to 2000s, we show that a warmer and wetter climate has intensified sediment-transport seasonality, with a 43% increase in summer sediment fluxes. Over half of this amplification stems from more frequent extreme sediment transport, particularly events triggered by high sediment supply rather than high discharge. Supported by a state-of-the-art river change dataset, we show that enhanced sediment seasonality and extreme sediment transport have largely contributed to increased river mobility since 2000. Sediment-driven changes are pushing riverine processes towards greater unpredictability and pose growing threats to water infrastructure and water security in vulnerable cold–dry regions.
Suggested Citation
Zhang, T., Best, J.L., East, A.E., Rosa, L., Wu, Q., Li, Y., Qi, Y., Li, Y., and Li, D., 2026, Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport: Nature Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-026-01829-4.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Water scarcity and infrastructure risk of amplified seasonal sediment transport |
| Series title | Nature Sustainability |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41893-026-01829-4 |
| Edition | Online First |
| Publication Date | May 06, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Nature |
| Contributing office(s) | Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center |