Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: Geography, soils and climate explain species-specific mortality

Cambridge Prisms: Drylands
By: , and 

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Abstract

Implicit in the construction of seed transfer zones (STZs) are the assumptions that plant populations are adapted to their home climates and that transferring native seed across climate gradients risks maladaptation and poor performance. However, plants are adapted to multiple aspects of their environments that are often excluded from STZ development. Here, we used models integrating geographic distance, climate distance and soil metrics to predict plant mortality in an experimental garden for three restoration-relevant species in the southwestern United States: Bouteloua curtipendulaHeterotheca villosa and Sporobolus cryptandrus. Overall, climate distance explained mortality better than geographic distance, but increasing climate distance was not consistently associated with higher mortality. In contrast, mortality always increased with geographic distance. Species responded idiosyncratically to environmental gradients such as soil texture and pH, indicating that incorporating site-specific variables beyond climate can improve predictions of survival. Finally, seed sources of H. villosa from hotter, drier climates exhibited improved survival during abnormally hot, dry conditions at the experimental site, whereas no consistent pattern emerged for the two grass species. Collectively, our results suggest that seeding strategies extending beyond climate matching alone may better support restoration outcomes when species-specific guidance is unavailable.

Suggested Citation

Roybal, C.M., Samuel, E.M., Mitchell, R., Winkler, D.E., and Massatti, R., 2026, Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: Geography, soils and climate explain species-specific mortality: Cambridge Prisms: Drylands, v. 3, e18, 11 p., https://doi.org/10.1017/dry.2026.10031.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: Geography, soils and climate explain species-specific mortality
Series title Cambridge Prisms: Drylands
DOI 10.1017/dry.2026.10031
Volume 3
Publication Date April 27, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher Cambridge University Press
Contributing office(s) Southwest Biological Science Center
Description e18, 11 p.
Country United States
State Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah
Additional publication details