Tropicalization of the temperate zone: Spatiotemporal variability of winter warming and declining freeze days across the United States
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Abstract
We investigate changes in cool-season and winter daily minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, and the occurrence of freeze days, from 1952 to 2024 across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Emphasis is placed on the tropical-temperate transition zone (TTTz) in the southeastern CONUS. During winter, ~70% of the land area exhibited Tmin warming rates exceeding those of Tmax. The countywide coldest Tmin became milder across 57% of the CONUS, while the coldest Tmax showed little change and even cooled east of the Rocky Mountains in the central CONUS. Across the TTTz, 75% of freeze days occur within a ~25–100-day window, often fewer than 75 days in the southernmost areas. Approximately 80% of counties exhibited significant contractions in freeze-day concentration, with the largest and most spatially consistent changes occurring in the Southeast, primarily driven by later start dates. Roughly 85% of the CONUS experienced a significant decline in freeze days, with the largest relative declines in regions where average winter Tmin is above freezing, while parts of the Pacific Northwest showed no significant change. An analysis of freeze day isopleths (30, 45, 60 and 75 days) across 20-year periods showed that the mean latitude of freeze days has migrated poleward substantially. Between 101° W and 79° W in the TTTz, the 30 freeze-day isopleth for the late period (2005–2024) was, on average, 122 km (~1.1° latitude) farther north than in the early period (1952–1971). Generally, the largest latitudinal shifts and percentage losses in freeze days occurred across low-elevation, low-relief regions at lower latitudes (e.g., the Mississippi River Valley), with abrupt shifts occurring near topographic gradients. Regions with sharp elevational gradients (e.g., Balcones Escarpment, Ouachita Mountains and Tennessee Valley) exhibited smaller temporal changes, likely reflecting the barrier-like influence of higher terrain on the poleward retreat of freeze days.
Suggested Citation
Brown, V.M., Thompson, D.T., DeFee, B.B., Osland, M., and Keim, B.D., 2026, Tropicalization of the temperate zone: Spatiotemporal variability of winter warming and declining freeze days across the United States: International Journal of Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70425.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Tropicalization of the temperate zone: Spatiotemporal variability of winter warming and declining freeze days across the United States |
| Series title | International Journal of Climatology |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.70425 |
| Edition | Online First |
| Publication Date | May 11, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Royal Meteorological Society |
| Contributing office(s) | Wetland and Aquatic Research Center |
| Country | United States |
| Other Geospatial | conterminous United States |